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Final Presentation: Stakeholder Driven Modeling to Understand Oyster Population Sustainability

Scientists, managers, and oyster harvesters are concerned about the long-term viability of oyster populations in the Guana Tolomato Matanzas (GTM) National Estuarine Research Reserve, Florida. To help improve oyster population assessment and management, this project developed a locally calibrated population dynamics model, specifically an Integral Projection Model (IPM), to assess the relative influence of different environmental and demographic processes on oyster population sustainability.

About this resource

This slide deck was presented to the GTM Oyster Water Quality Task Force in December of 2019 as the project was wrapping up. The presentation includes a summary of their findings about oyster growth, survival and predation in different zones in the GTM Reserve. These results can inform restoration by helping locate high-reproduction, high-resilience areas of the reserve where restoration actions could have the most impact.

Project analyses identified only four sites in the estuary where oysters are expected to typically survive to harvestable size: St. Augustine, Salt Run, Butler, and Matanzas River. Modeling of productivity found restoration or preservation activities in the St. Augustine and Salt Run zone have the greatest potential for success and positive impact.