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Climate Understanding & Resilience in the River Valley Future Scenarios Summary

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Southern California ’s coastal environments are under intense development pressure. In the Tijuana River Valley, this pressure translates into the fragmentation and loss of coastal wetlands that provide invaluable services, such as water quality protection. Conserving and restoring these wetlands has become a priority for regional coastal managers, scientists, and environmental organizations. However, despite a wealth of knowledge about these coastal systems, decision-makers lack essential information to transform wetland recovery and management priorities into action. In response, a team led by the Tijuana River Reserve integrated the historical ecology of the region with information about the services that wetlands provide to develop a decision-making framework and tools to guide coastal wetland recovery and management in Southern California.

As part of this project, the team conducted scenario planning to help managers and planners better understand how climate change might alter the physical landscape of the Tijuana River Valley. This document summarizes the scenario planning process and outcomes from the scenario planning workshop hosted by the project team.